40/100 GigE Markets: 2010 and Beyond
Published: January 15, 2010
Download Chapter One Here
CIR has been following the beyond 10G market for more than three years now, starting when the first rumors surfaced that the IEEE would be working on a 100G project. As a result, we have garnered significant insight into the products that are being developed for this rapidly emerging market as well as the thinking of the power users who will be the first to deploy 40/100 GigE.
In this report, as in its previous reports that CIR has published on the 40/100 GigE market, we examine the business opportunities for all module and component products aimed at the 40/100 GigE space. These include transceivers, cabling, lasers, TOSA/ROSAs, WDM devices, dispersion compensation and error correction devices and networking silicon
In this latest CIR study of the 40/100 Gbps market, we also provide up to the minute commentary on the strategies of the leading players in the 40/100 Gbps including component/module makers, OEMs and service providers. And, as with previous CIR reports on 40/100 Gbps we include a granular eight-year volume and value shipment projection.
However, this is not just an update of CIR's earlier reports, but a completely new report that reflects the fact that 2010 is the first time that equipment makers and end users will have the chance to actually work with and deploy 40/100 GigE. The 40/100 GigE standard is supposed to be published in June 2010 and pre-standard devices are expected to be available as early as in the first quarter 2010. In fact, we believe that the OFC/NFOEC 2010 trade show and conference could turn out to be the "coming out party" for 40 and 100G initial product offerings. And as CIR has long stressed, we have always viewed 40/100 GigE as a networking protocol that will eventually cater to a mass market that will extend well beyond the high-performance computing centers and server mega-farms that were the original impetus for the standards making in this area. One area that receives particular attention is how 40/100 GigE will fit into the data center environment in which InfiniBand and Fibre Channel has often been the preferred way of doing things; not Ethernet.
However, this report goes well beyond looking at traditional datacom markets for Ethernet and also provides extensive analysis of the market for 40/100 GigE in the carrier market. Until recently, Carrier Ethernet was close to an oxymoron. However, many of the major carriers are now talking about near-term 100 Gbps upgrades and, because there is nothing else available, they can only be referring to Ethernet deployment. With this in mind, the report raises and provides preliminary answers to the question as to what the 40/100 G products for the carrier market will look like? In providing these answers the report also takes a look at what the new found cooperation between the ITU-T, OIF and IEEE will really mean to carrier marketplace for 40/100 Gbps products.
The analyst for this report has had many years experience as both an engineer and a marketing manager in the optical module and cabling business. As a result, this report provides in depth coverage from the perspective of an insider; someone who understands the commercialization process for this kind of products as well as what it takes to market transceivers and components to OEMs in today's economic environment. Our analyst also happens to have a deep understanding of the latest trends and requirements in large data centers, the market that will be key to a take off in the 40/100 GigE market.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Market Drivers for 40G and 100G Ethernet
E.1.1 The Emerging Ethernet Paradigm
E.1.2 Video Everywhere
E.1.3 Data Centers
E.1.4 High Performance Computing (HPC)
E.1.5 Social Media, Cloud Computing and Managed Hosting
E.1.6 40G and 100G Ethernet Transport
E.2 Standards and MSAs Winners and Losers
E.2.1 Standards Evolution
E.2.2 MSA Evolution
E.3 Likely Adoption Patterns for 40/100G
E.3.1 Adoption of 40G Ethernet
E.3.2 Adoption of OC-768
E.3.3 Adoption of 100G Ethernet
E.4 Technology Options for High-Speed Networking
E.4.1 Opportunities in Parallel Optics
E.4.2 Opportunities in Serial Optics
E.4.3 Materials, Manufacturing Processes and Component Types for High-Speed Networks
E.5 Summary of Key Opportunities in 40G and 100G Ethernet
E.5.1 Lasers, Transmitters and TOSAs
E.5.2 Detectors, Receivers and ROSAs
E.5.3 Modulators
E.5.4 WDM Products
E.5.5 Media
E.5.6 Networking Silicon
E.6 Summary of Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 The Story So Far
1.1.2 The Markets for 40 and 100G: Bigger than First Thought
1.1.3 Has 100GigE Killed SONET?
1.1.4 How Converged Networks in the Data Center Will Drive 40/100GigE
1.2 Objectives of this Report
1.3 Scope of this Report
1.4 Methodology and Information Sources for this Report
1.5 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Higher-Speed Ethernet and Its Applications Drivers
2.1 Introduction: Massively Growing Needs from Data Centers and ISPs
2.2 Video on the Rise: The Business to Consumer Switch
2.2.1 Consumer Video: The Real Video Driver for 40/100 GigE
2.2.2 Business Video: Not What We Thought It Would Be
2.3 Data Centers and Enterprise Networks: Data Rate and Bandwidth Requirements
2.3.1 Aggregation and Faster Interfaces
2.3.2 Servers, Switches and Storage: Where Technologies Happen First
2.3.3 The Impact of Convergence in the Data Center and FCoE
2.4 High-Performance Computing: The People Who Brought Us 100GigE
2.4.1 Bandwidth Requirements for HPC
2.4.2 InfiniBand versus Ethernet versus Fibre Channel?
2.5 Central Offices, POPs and Internet Exchanges
2.5.1 VSR OC-768: The Old-Fashioned Way to 40 Gbps
2.6 Long-Haul, Metro and Access Networks
2.6.1 Carrier 100G: What Will It Look Like?
2.7 Technical Requirements for 40G and 100G Networks
2.8 Design Architectures for 40G and 100G
2.9 Multiple PMD Types Supported by a Single Connector
Chapter Three: Evolution of Technology for 40G and 100G Networks
3.1 Introduction
3.2 40GBase-KR4 (1m Backplane) Technology
3.3 40GBase-CR4 and 100GBase-CR10 (10m Copper Cable) Technology
3.4 40GBase-SR4 and 100GBase-SR10 (100m LOMF) Technology
3.5 40GBase-LR4 (10km SMF) Technology
3.6 100GBASE-LR4 (10-km SMF) and 100GBASE-ER4 (40-km SMF) Technology
3.7 Future Variants for 40G and 100G Ethernet
3.7.1 Future 40G Variants
3.7.2 Future 100G Variants
3.8 Basic Components for Higher-Speed Ethernet
3.8.1 Integration Imperative
3.8.2 Parallel vs. Serial Transmission
3.9 The Role for Optical Integration and Silicon Photonics
3.9.1 Materials Platforms for Optical Integration
3.9.2 Silicon Photonics and High-Speed Networking
3.10 Potential for Serial and Parallel Solutions for High-Speed Optical Networks
3.11 Lasers, TOSAs and Modulators
3.11.1 Advanced Modulation Schemes
3.12 Detectors, Receivers and ROSAs
3.13 WDM and Waveguide Products
3.14 Amplifications and Dispersion Compensation for Next-Generation Networking
3.15 The Future of Parallel Optics
3.16 Media
3.16.1 Multi-Mode Fiber
3.16.2 Single-Mode Fiber
3.16.3 Active Optical Cabling
3.16.4 The Future for Copper?
Chapter Four: Evolution of Standards and MSAs Beyond 10-Gig
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Higher Speed Ethernet Task Group (IEEE 802.3ba)
4.2.1 The IEEE process for 40G and 100G Ethernet
4.2.2 40G and 100G Ethernet Standards Development Objectives
4.3 Data Center Network Convergence
4.3.1 Converged Enhanced Ethernet
4.3.2 Fibre Channel over Ethernet (FCoE)
4.3.3 Higher-speed Fibre Channel
4.3.4 InfiniBand: Will it Disappear?
4.4 What Will Be the Role of ITU/Carrier Standards?
4.4.1 Ethernet and SONET/SDH Evolution
4.4.2 Ethernet in a SONET/SDH World and the OTN
4.5 The Role of OIF
4.6 Use and Evolution of MSAs for 40- and 100-Gbps Networks
4.6.1 CX4 Connectors
4.6.2 Quad Small Form Factor Pluggable (QSFP) MSA
4.6.3 CXP MSA
4.6.4 CFP MSA
Chapter Five: Five-Year Forecasts of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Data Networks
5.1 Introduction
5.1.1 A Note on Pre-Standard Products
5.1.2 A Timetable for Next-Generation Ethernet
5.1.3 40/100 Gbps and the State of 10-Gbps Networking
5.2 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Ethernet: 2010 to 2017
5.2.1 Server Infrastructure Growth
5.2.2 Server Penetration Projections
5.2.3 Switch Port Projections
5.3 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Pricing and Market Value
5.3.1 Forecasts for 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps by Application Type
5.4 The Future at 40 Gbps
5.5 A Note on Serial Solutions
5.6 Components Opportunity Forecast
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Core (WAN) and Server (LAN) Data Rate Demand
Exhibit E-2: U.S. National Labs Supercomputer Internet Traffic (Bytes)
Exhibit E-3: 40G and 100G Ethernet MSA Roadmaps
Exhibit E-4: Implementations and Technology for 40G and 100G Networks
Exhibit E-5: Total Value of 40 GigE and 100 GigE Server, Switch and Router Market
Exhibit 1-1: Comparison of Ethernet, SONET/SDH, FC and IB Data Rates
Exhibit 1-2: Fibre Channel, InfiniBand and Ethernet in the Data Center
Exhibit 1-3: Component, Module and Subsystem Products Covered in this Report
Exhibit 2-1: Home Video Bandwidth
Exhibit 2-2: Public Network Data Rate Progression (Gbps)
Exhibit 2-3: Local Area Network and Enterprise Data Center Data Rate Progression (Gbps)
Exhibit 2-4: Fibre Channel Data Rate Progression Planning
Exhibit 2-5: Fibre Channel Over Ethernet Illustration
Exhibit 2-6: Representation of Today's Typical "Supercomputer"
Exhibit 2-7: InfiniBand Formats and Data Rates
Exhibit 2-8: Illustration of Today's End-to-End Network
Exhibit 2-9: Typical ISP Network Map
Exhibit 2-10: 40G and 100G Ethernet Interfaces
Exhibit 3-1: Faceplate Density
Exhibit 3-2: Block diagram for 40GBASE-SR4 and 100GBASE-SR10
Exhibit 3-3: 40GBASE-SR4 QSFP from MergeOptics
Exhibit 3-4: 100GBASE-SR10 CFP from Reflex Photonics
Exhibit 3-5 : 100GBASE-SR10 and 120G (QDR) InfiniBand AOCs from MergeOptics
Exhibit 3-6 : Sumitomo's 40GBASE-LR4 10km CFP Module
Exhibit 3-7 : End-to-end Network: Enterprise, Access/metro, Long haul/ULH
Exhibit 3-8 : 100GBASE-LR4 Block Diagram
Exhibit 3-9: Technology Directions for 40- and 100-Gigabit Networks Adopted By the IEEE
Exhibit 3-10; Problems to be Overcome in Serial 100G Networks
Exhibit 3-11: Infinera PIC
Exhibit 3-12: Opportunities for Optical Integration in High-Speed Networks
Exhibit 3-13: Comparison of Advanced Modulation Schemes
Exhibit 3-14: Modulation Format Characteristics for Higher Speed Networking
Exhibit 4-1: The Market Need for 40G Ethernet
Exhibit 4-2: CX4 Features
Exhibit 4-3: CX4 Connectors from Molex
Exhibit 4-4: QSFP Features
Exhibit 4-5: Active Optical Cable Assembly Using the QSFP
Exhibit 4-6: CXP Features
Exhibit 4-7: CXP Passive Copper Cable
Exhibit 4-8: CFP Features
Exhibit 4-9: Dual 40G CFP module
Exhibit 5-1: A Provisional Timetable for 40/100G Ethernet
Exhibit 5-2: 40GigE and 100GigE Ports Shipped (Millions)
Exhibit 5-3: 40GigE and 100GigE Ethernet Market Projections
Exhibit 5-4: Market Value of 40/100 GigE Switch and Server Market at Equipment Level Prices
Exhibit 5-5: Market Value of 40/100 GigE Router Market at Equipment Level Prices
Exhibit 5-6: Total Value of 40/100-GigE Server, Switch and Router Market at Equipment Level Prices
Exhibit 5-7: Summary of 40GigE Ethernet Equipment Market by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 5-8: Summary of 100GigE Equipment Market by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 5-9: Future Options at 40 Gbps
Exhibit 5-10: 40GigE Transceiver Market by Variant
Exhibit 5-11: 100-GigE Transceiver Market by Variant
Exhibit 5-12: Expenditure on 40GigE Module Components
Exhibit 5-13: Expenditure on 100-GigE Module Components
Exhibit 5-14: TOSA and ROSA Market Estimates ($ Millions)
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