Markets for Co-Packaged Optics 2022-2030

In 2020 CIR became the first analysis firm to release a co-packaged optics (CPO) market report that surveyed the opportunities flowing from the development and deployment of co-packaged optics .  In this new co-packaged optics market report, we bring the story up to date and focus on advances for CPO in the data center.  In the first main chapter we focus on the role of the standards and IAs, especially the latest version of the OIF’s CPO Framework.  In our view the work recently presented by the OIF will lead to new product directions for laser, transceiver, and switch modules, as well as connectors.

While in the past, the drive towards high speeds in the data center has been caused by the growing ubiquity, the data networking now believes that in the future even higher latency traffic, especially AI and machine language (ML) traffic will predominate.  These and other newer kinds of traffic are now being cited as what is motivating CPO R&D.  The final chapter of this report predicts how large data centers will be rearchitected with CPO to meet current demands.  This chapter also includes multi-year forecasts in revenue and volume terms of CPO products for the data center.

Along the way this report discusses such matters as how well CPO will compete with the new breed of 800G pluggables and how far it will be able to penetrate the data center market.  In addition, the report looks at how the CPO industry sector is evolving, which companies are rising to prominence and how the optical components supply chain is coping with the new challenge of an integrated optoelectronic product.

 

Executive Summary

E.1 Objective and Scope Of This Report
E.2 CPO Product Trends
E.3 The OIF Co-Packaging Framework
E.4 Near-Packaged Optics Emerges
E.5 Data Center Markets For CPO
E.5.1 CPO In the Hyperscale Data Center
E.5.2 Enterprise Data Centers
E.5.3 Telecom Data Centers
E.5.4 Edge Data Centers

Chapter One: Introduction: The Need for CPO in the Latency-sensitive Data Center

1.1 Background to This Report
1.1.1 Evolution of CPO in 2021 and Early 2022
1.1.2 CPO and the Changing Nature of Data Center Traffic
1.1.3 Five-year Forecast of CPO Products
1.2 Objective and Scope of This Report

Chapter Two: Recent Advances in CPO Products and Standards

2.1 Origins and Definitions of CPO Technology
2.1.1 CPO: Worthy Successors to Silicon Photonics and On-Board Optics
2.1.2 A Note on CPO and Chiplets
2.2 CPO Product Trends and Recent Developments
2.2.1 Ranovus
2.2.2 Marvell
2.2.3 Anritsu and SENKO
2.2.4 Ayar Labs and Lumentum
2.2.5 Furukawa Electric
2.2.6 Yet Other Firms
2.3 Standards and Agreements Related To CPO
2.4 The OIF Co-Packaging Framework
2.4.1 External Laser Small Form Factor Pluggable Project
2.4.2 Cooling Systems for Co-Packaging Co-packaged Engines
2.4.3 3.2T Co-Packaged Optics Optical Module
2.5 The Role of COBO
2.5.1 COBO CPO Working Group
2.6 Near-Packaged Optics
2.7 Impact of Next-Gen Pluggables
2.7.1 The Survivability of Pluggables
2.8 Switching Generations And CPO
2.9 Fitting CPO Into the Transceiver Supply Chain
2.9.1 Multiple Suppliers and Single Suppliers
2.10 CODA: Emerging Issues
2.11 Key Points from This Chapter

Chapter Three: Impact of Latency-Sensitive Traffic on Demand for CPO

3.1 New Types of Traffic
3.2 Videoconferencing and Online Events: Emerging Requirements
3.2.1 How Will the Video Boom Survive COVID-19?
3.3 Data Centers, AI and ML
3.3.1 Latency and AI
3.3.2 Networked AI and CPO
3.4 IOT AND IIOT
3.5 Other Kinds of Traffic
3.6 Key Points from This Chapter

Chapter Four: Rebuilding the Data Center with CPO: A Multi-year Projection


4.1 Forecasting Philosophy for CPO In the Data Center
4.1.1 An Optimistic Scenario for Co-packaged Optics
4.1.2 A Pessimistic Scenario for Co-packaged Optics
4.1.3 New Thoughts on Pricing
4.1.4 Growth of Data Centers
4.2 CPO In the Hyperscale Data Center
4.2.1 Forecasts of CPO in the Hyperscale Data Center
4.2.2 A Note on HPC in the Hyperscale Data Center
4.3. Enterprise Data Centers
4.3.1 Forecasts of CPO In the Enterprise Data Centers
4.4 TELECOM DATA CENTERS
4.4.1 Forecasts of CPO in Telecom Data Centers
4.5 Edge Data Centers
4.5.1 Forecasts of CPO In Edge Data Centers
4.6 Summary of Forecasts
4.7 A Note on Switches as the Main Driver for High Data Rate Transceivers
4.8 CPO May Need Generational Change in The Data Center For A Real Take Off
4.9 Key Points from This Chapter

About the Author
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in This Report

List of Exhibits


Exhibit E-1: Market Forecasts for CPO Devices in the Data Center ($ Millions)
Exhibit 1-1: Factors Shaping the Market for CPO Products in the Data Center
Exhibit 2-1: Selected Firms Shaping the CPO Space
Exhibit 2-2: OIF Membership
Exhibit 2-3: OIF Co-Packaging Framework Project: Scope
Exhibit 2-4: ELSFP: Possible Project Range
Exhibit 2-5: Specs for the Co-Packaged Optics Optical Module
Exhibit 2-6: Likely Supply Chain Trends for High-end Data Network Interfaces in the CPO Era
Exhibit 3-1: Required Latencies by Selected Type of Traffic
Exhibit 3-2: Emerging forms of Traffic and Their Impact on CPO Demand
Exhibit 4-1: Potential Groups that Will Benefit from Co-packaged Optics in Data Centers
Exhibit 4-2: Market Forecasts for CPO Devices in the Hyperscale Data Center
Exhibit 4-3: Market Forecasts for CPO Devices in the Enterprise Data Center
Exhibit 4-4: Market Forecasts for CPO Devices in the Telecom Data Center
Exhibit 4-5: Market Forecasts for CPO Devices in the Edge Data Center
Exhibit 4-6: Summary of Market Forecasts for CPO Devices in Data Centers ($ Millions)

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