Next Generation Transceivers Markets: 2022-2028

This report identifies the opportunities for next generation transceivers in data communications and telecommunications. Although the longer-term future of transceivers may be found in co-packaged optics, much of the next-generation transceiver space – consisting of the latest transceivers that are now appearing for the data center, access and metro space – are very much in the pluggable tradition.

Increasingly a transceiver is no longer just a transmitter plus receiver with some simple electronics thrown in.  Instead, next-generation transceivers will be smart modules appropriately designed to simplify network architecture and enable more flexible network configurations.  These innovations are being designed with an expected surge of high-data rate, latency-sensitive traffic in mind.  Pluggability plays an important role in this design work, as will coherent optics and high data rates.  The source of such traffic will be AI, machine learning (ML), and virtual reality traffic.  Such traffic is only just beginning to appear on the network, but the network is being re-architected today with the traffic of tomorrow clearly in mind and next-generation transceivers.

This report analyzes the technical changes that CIR expects to in transceivers, as well expected changes in the transceiver supply chain.  The report begins with a survey of the key emerging technical trends, discussing especially the coming market for 800G pluggables and the spread of coherent communications across the entire network.  The report also examines some of the interesting new MSAs that will impact transceiver design going forward and the role that silicon photonics will play.  The report is targeted towards OEMs, third-party transceiver suppliers, network managers and, of course, transceiver manufacturers themselves.

Executive Summary
E.1 A Definition of Next-generation Transceivers
E.1.1 Next-Generation Transceivers: Enabling Technologies
E.2 Traffic Trends Shaping the Next-Generation Transceiver Market
E.2.1 Latency, Bandwidth and Transceivers
E.2.2 Types and Evolution of 800G Transceivers
E.3 The Role of Coherent Communications
E.3.1 Coherent Transceiver MSAs
E.4 Next-Generation Transceivers in the Access Network: PONs
E.5 Manufacturing and Integration
E.6 Transceiver Supply Chain Transformations
E.7 Summary of Next-Generation Transceiver Market Forecasts

Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
1.3 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Influential Technical Trends in Transceivers and the Transceiver Market
2.1 Influential Transceiver Market and Product Trends
2.2 The Need for Speed: Data Rate Growth
2.2.1 Transceivers and Switching Generations
2.3 Next-generation Transceivers and Next-generation Traffic
2.3.1 AI Services
2.3.2 Special Impact of IoT
2.3.3 Edge Computing as a Latency Avoidance Strategy
2.4 The Role of Advanced FEC
2.5 Transceivers for the Transition to 800G
2.5.1 800G Transceivers Based on 400G MSAs—The Work of the Ethernet Consortium
2.5.2 IEEE 800G Standards The IEEE and 800G
2.6 The 800G Pluggable MSA
2.6.1 800G-FR4 Technical Specification
2.6.2 800G-PSM8 Technical Specification
2.6.3 800G-LR-4 Trial
2.7 On-Board Optics
2.8 Co-packaged Optics
2.8.1 The 3.2T Co-Packaged Module
2.8.2 Other Variations on CPO
2.9 Coherent Transceivers
2.9.1 Technology
2.9.2 Coherent Optics and DCOs 2
2.9.3 ZR Optics
2.9.4 800G-LR
2.9.5 XR Optics and the Open XR Forum
2.9.6 Applications for Coherent Transceivers
2.10 Terabit BiDi MSA
2.11 Transceivers for Next-generation PONs
2.11.1 Transceivers and the PON Difference
2.11.2 Current Generations of PON Transceivers
2.11.3 The Future of PON Transceivers
2.12 Transceivers and Chip-to-Chip Optics
2.13 Materials-related Aspects of Next-Generation Transceivers
2.13.1 Plasmonic Transceivers
2.13.2 Graphene Transceivers
2.14 Some Notes on Lasers
2.14.1 Traditional Transceiver Lasers
2.14.2 Intel and Transceiver Lasers
2.14.3 External Laser Small Form Factor (ELSP) Pluggable Project
2.14.4 Quantum Dot Lasers
2.15 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Three: Trends in Transceiver Manufacturing, Supply Chains and Marketing
3.1 Manufacturing and Integration
3.1.1 Next-generation Silicon Photonics
3.1.2 Integration of DSPs
3.1.3 Integration of Lasers
3.2 The Traditional Transceiver Supply Chain and Beyond
3.2.1 Acquisitions and the Supply Chain
3.2.2 Who Buys from Whom
3.2.3 Why Customers buy from OEMs
3.3 The Changing Role of China
3.3.1 Trade Policy Implications for the Transceiver Industry
3.3.2 Moving Away from Chinese Manufacturing
3.4 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Four: Ten-year Transceiver Market Forecast
4.1 Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions
4.2 A Note on Pricing
4.3 Forecast of Next-generation Transceiver Market by Type of Transceivers
4.4 Forecast by Network Location and End-User Type

Chapter Five: Supplier Profiles
5.1 Accelink
5.2 Ciena
5.3 Cisco
5.4 Coherent
5.5 Eoptolink
5.6 Fujitsu
5.7 Hisense Broadband
5.8 Huawei
5.9 Infinera
5.10 Intel
5.11 Innolight
5.12 Juniper
5.13 Lessengers
5.14 Linktel
5.15 Lumentum
5.17 Sumitomo Electric

About the Author
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: Aspects of Next-generation Transceivers Analyzed in this Report: What It Means to be a Next-Generation Transceiver
Exhibit E-2: Required Latencies by Selected Type of Traffic
Exhibit E-3: Summary of Next-Generation Transceiver Markets ($ Million)
Exhibit 2-1: Switching Generations for the Broadcom Tomahawk 5 Switch
Exhibit 2-2: Emerging forms of Traffic and Their Impact on Transceiver Demand
Exhibit 2-3: Activities of the IEEE 802.3df Task Force
Exhibit 2-4: The 800G Pluggable MSA -- Promoters
Exhibit 2-5: OIF Co-Packaging Framework Project: Scope
Exhibit 2-6: Specs for the Co-Packaged Optics Optical Module
Exhibit 2-7: Key Technologies in Coherent Communications
Exhibit 2-8: Currently Used PONs
Exhibit 2-9: ELSFP: Possible Project Range
Exhibit 3-1: Likely Supply Chain Trends for Next-generation Transceivers
Exhibit 4-1: Estimates of Next-Generation Transceiver Markets, by Type
Exhibit 4-2: Summary Next-Generation Transceiver Revenues, by Transceiver Type ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-3: Summary of Next-Generation Transceiver Markets, by Network Location and User Type ($ Million)

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