Optical Networking Opportunities in the 5G Infrastructure Market: 2019 to 2028

Report # CIR-5GI-0119
Published Jan 16, 2019

Since CIR published its first report on optical networking in the 5G infrastructure market in 2017, a lot has happened in the 5G world.  In particular, expectations for subscriber numbers have grown, leading CIR’s more bullish expectation for PON, WDM, Carrier Ethernet, space division multiplexing and optical cable in 5G-focused backhaul and fronthaul nets.

The report includes profiles of 17 mobile operators with advanced 5G strategies, showing how these carriers are planning to deploy optical networks and who their suppliers of hardware and cable will be.  It also includes analyses of the leading optical equipment and optical cable suppliers for the 5G infrastructure.  There are also detailed 10-year forecasts in volume (ports) and value ($ Millions) terms of both optical equipment and cable with breakouts by type of technology, fronthaul vs. backhaul deployment, and geography.

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Executive Summary
E.1 Evolution 5G Networks: Optical Opportunities
E.1.1 Fiber is Still Crucial to the 5G Infrastructure
E.1.2 What has Changed Since Our Last Report
E.2 What 5G Means to the Optical Networking Business
E.3 5G Backhaul and Carrier Ethernet
E.4 PONs and 5G Infrastructure
E.5 WDM, SDM and 5G Infrastructure
E.6 Ten-year Forecast of 5G Backhaul Technologies

Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background of this Report
1.1.1 How will the 5G Infrastructure be Built?
1.1.1 The Need for 5G Infrastructure
1.1.2 Rebuilding the Mobile Infrastructure for 5G: Who is it Good For?
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of Report
1.4 Forecast Methodology
1.5 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Ten-year Forecasts for Optical Networking Equipment Markets for 5G Infrastructure
2.1 Forecasting Methodology
2.1.1 New Equipment/Fiber Markets vs. Replacement
2.1.2 Derivation of Revenue Forecasts
2.1.3 5G Subscribers: Uncertainties
2.2 What 5G Infrastructure Means to the Optical Networking Business
2.2.1 5G Subscribers: Early Trials, Subscriber Base Evolution and Optical Infrastructure
2.3 Evolution of the 5G Infrastructure: Backhaul and Fronthaul
2.3.1 5G Backhaul will need more Dark Fiber
2.3.2 Transition to 5G Cells—Impact on 5G Backhaul
2.3.3 Evolving Meanings of Backhaul and Fronthaul
2.3.4 The Future of Fronthaul Technology
2.4 Global 5G Optical Equipment by Equipment Type and Network Type
2.5 Ten-year Forecast for PON Equipment for 5G Infrastructure
2.5.1 A Note on PONs and 5G as a Replacement for Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH)
2.5.2 PON Varieties and 5G
2.5.3 Ten-year Forecasts of PONs for 5G
2.6 Ten-year Forecast for WDM Equipment for 5G
2.6.1 Data Rates Supported by WDM for 5G Infrastructure
2.6.2 A Role for Fronthaul Processors and OTN
2.6.3 Ten-year Forecasts of WDM for 5G
2.7 Ten-year Forecast for SDM Equipment for 5G Infrastructure
2.7.1 Ten-year Forecasts of SDM for 5G
2.8 Ten-year Forecast of Carrier Ethernet for 5G
2.8.1 Ten-year Forecasts of Carrier for 5G
2.9 Ten-year Forecast of Optical Cable for 5G Infrastructure
2.9.1 Deployment of Optical Cable: Operational Issues
2.9.2 Ten-year Forecasts
2.10 Alternatives to Optical Networking in the 5G Infrastructure
2.10.1 Free-space Optics
2.10.2 Wireless Backhaul for 5G: Microwave and mmWave
2.11 5G Infrastructure in the APAC Region
2.11.1 Impact of High Mobile Penetration Rates
2.11.2 Many 5G Trials already in Place
2.11.3 Prestige Projects and National Agendas
2.11.4 China
2.11.5 Taiwan
2.11.6 Korea
2.11.7 Japan
2.12 5G Infrastructure in North America
2.12.1 United States
2.13 5G Infrastructure in Europe
2.14 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Three: 5G Infrastructure Carrier in the Backhaul and Fronthaul
3.1 AT & T (U.S.)
3.1.1 Preferred Vendors
3.2 Verizon
3.2.1 Preferred Vendors
3.3 Charter Communications
3.4 EE
3.4.1 Preferred Vendors
3.5 Softbank
3.5.1 5G Probable Vendors for Softbank Group
3.6 SK Telecom
3.6.1 Preferred Suppliers
3.7 KT Corporation
3.7.1 Preferred Suppliers
3.8 NTT DoCoMo
3.8.1 Preferred Suppliers
3.9 KDDI Corporation
3.9.1 Preferred Suppliers
3.10 Vodafone
3.10.1 5G Probable Vendors for Vodafone
3.11 LG Uplus
3.11.1 Selected Vendors
3.12 China Mobile
3.12.1 Preferred Vendors
3.13 China Telecom Corporation
3.13.1 Preferred Vendors
3.14 China Unicom
3.14.1 Preferred Suppliers
3.15 Orange
3.15.1 Preferred Suppliers
3.16 O2
3.16.1 Preferred Vendors
3.17 Three UK
3.17.1 Preferred Vendors
3.18 T- Mobile USA Inc.
3.18.1 5G Probable Vendors for T-Mobile

Chapter Four: Optical Networking for 5G Fronthaul and Backhaul: Technologies and Suppliers
4.1 The 5G Infrastructure Market is Fragmented
4.2 Ericsson (Sweden)
4.2.1 Ericsson’s 5G products
4.3 Nokia Corporation (Finland)
4.3.1 Nokia’s 5G products
4.4 Huawei (China)
4.4.1 Huawei, Standards and Its Customers
4.4.2 Huawei’s 5G Products
4.5 ZTE Corporation (China)
4.5.1 ZTE’s 5G Products
4.6 Ciena Corporation (United States)
4.7 Infinera (United States)
4.7.1 Infinera 5G Products
4.8 PON Suppliers
4.8.1 Chips and Components Suppliers
4.8.2 NG-PON2 Transceivers
4.9 Cable and Capacity Suppliers
4.9.1 Opportunities for Existing Facilities
4.9.2 The role of Dark Fiber in 5G Backhaul Supply Structure
4.9.3 Network Operator-owned Dark Fiber
4.9.4 Impact of 5G on other Dark Fiber Providers and Installers
4.9.5 Cable Supplier Interest in 5G

About the Author
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: Optical Networking Opportunities from 5G Backhaul
Exhibit E-2: Ten-year Forecast of Investment in 5G Backhaul Worldwide by Type of Technology ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-1: New Applications for 5G Wireless: Data Rate and Latency Requirements
Exhibit 2-2: Optical Networking Opportunities from 5G Backhaul
Exhibit 2-3: Selected Early 5G Trials and Associated Suppliers
Exhibit 2-4: Generations of Mobile Communications
Exhibit 2-5: 5G Subscriber Evolution (Millions)
Exhibit 2-6: 5G Subscribers By Geography (Millions)
Exhibit 2-7: Backhaul Market by Segment
Exhibit 2-8: 5G Infrastructure Revenues: By Technology ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-9: 5G Infrastructure Equipment Revenues: By Network Segment ($Millions)
Exhibit 2-10: 5G Infrastructure Revenues: By Geography ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-11: PONs in the Mobile Backhaul Network
Exhibit 2-12: Protocols for Fiber Deployment in 5G Backhaul
Exhibit 2-13: ITU Recommendations for NG-PON2
Exhibit 2-14: 5G Infrastructure: PON Ports Shipped (000s)
Exhibit 2-15: 5G Infrastructure: PON Revenues by Geography ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-16: 5G Infrastructure: PON Revenues by Data Rate ($Millions)
Exhibit 2-17: 5G Infrastructure: PON Revenues by Network Location ($Millions)
Exhibit 2-18: 5G Infrastructure: Cable for 5G Infrastructure-related PON Systems (000 fkm)
Exhibit 2-19: 5G Infrastructure: Cable for 5G Infrastructure-related PON Systems ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-20: 5G Infrastructure: WDM Ports Shipped (000s)
Exhibit 2-21: 5G Infrastructure: WDM Revenues by Geography ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-22: 5G Infrastructure: WDM Revenues by Data Rate ($Millions)
Exhibit 2-23: 5G Infrastructure: WDM Revenues by Network Location ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-24: 5G Infrastructure: Cable for 5G Infrastructure-related WDM Systems (000 fkm)
Exhibit 2-25: 5G Infrastructure: Cable for 5G Infrastructure-related WDM Systems ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-26: 5G Infrastructure: SDM Ports Shipped (000s)
Exhibit 2-27: 5G Infrastructure: SDM Revenues by Geography ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-28: 5G Infrastructure: SDM Revenues by Network Location ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-29: 5G Infrastructure: Cable for 5G Infrastructure-related SDM Systems (000 fkm)
Exhibit 2-30: 5G Infrastructure: Cable for 5G Infrastructure-related SDM Systems ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-31: 5G Infrastructure: Carrier Ethernet Ports Shipped by Geography (000s)
Exhibit 2-32: 5G Infrastructure: Carrier Ethernet Revenues by Geography ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-33: 5G Infrastructure: Carrier Ethernet Revenues by Network Location ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-34: 5G Infrastructure: Cable for 5G Infrastructure-related Carrier Ethernet Systems (000 fkm)
Exhibit 2-35: 5G Infrastructure: Cable for 5G Infrastructure-related Carrier Ethernet Systems ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-36: 5G Infrastructure: Cable Revenues by Geography ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-37: Cable Revenues by Type of Traffic ($ Millions)
Exhibit 3-1: AT&T Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-2: Verizon Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-3: Charter Communications Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-4: EE Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-5: SoftBank Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-6: SK Telecom Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-7: KT Corp. Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-8: NTT Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-9: KDDI Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-10: Vodafone Probable Suppliers
Exhibit 3-11: LG Uplus Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-12: China Telecom Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-13: China Unicom Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-14: Orange Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 3-15: O2 Preferred Suppliers
Exhibit 4-1: PON System Suppliers for 5G Infrastructure
Exhibit 4-2: NG-PON Component and Chip Suppliers

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